Newsletter XVIII

August 1, 2003

Dear Friends:

It is hard to believe, but I am almost at a loss of words to explain the current Real Estate Market on the West Side of Maui. It has continued to play out completely different from what I had presumed would be happening on Maui in this 10-year cycle of recessions.

Having lived here on Maui for 35 years, it has been my experience in selling properties, we would generally be at the bottom of the recession by 2004. In the past, Real Estate prices hit bottom in 1974, 1984 and 1994, and theoretically we would hit bottom in 2004, but as I stated above, it appears to not be happening this time around.

In the previous lows in the Maui Real Estate, people would come into my Open House, and ask, "Why are there so many homes for sale?" Lately I have not been hearing that question, because there is a lack of inventory and there are only a few real estate signs posted.

I have sold more homes than any other real estate agent in the area, with a total of 42 homes since 1995, which does not take into consideration, hundreds of condominiums and land sales, so I do feel I have a pretty good feel for the Real Estate Market. Lately the question most asked is: "What do you think is causing the lack of Inventory?"

My analysis is as follows:

  1. The lowest interest rates that I can recall since the late 1950s. 
     
  2. Very little return on your hard earned money, placed in CD's, Money Market Funds, or stocks, where people lost considerable amount of money. 
     
  3. The condominiums they own, which usually are in a rental program, bring in modest returns, and are better than the vehicles I mentioned above. Therefore people are holding on to their condominiums. 
     
  4. Subconsciously people may consider Maui a safe haven, IF, there is another large terrorist attack on a major city, coupled with the psychological effects of 9/11, where people have come to the realization that "Life is short." 
     
  5. Most Buyers' are now Baby Boomers, who live for today. In my generation, my Mother told me to save for the next Depression, which she feared would come. 
     
  6. Hawaii and especially Maui is a relatively safe place, compared to most large cities, and it is unlikely that a Terrorist is going to waste their time choosing a target in Lahaina.

Last but not least, we do have great weather, and overall Maui is a Beautiful place to visit or live. For Mako and I, life has been good.

Sincerely,

Cliff Mc Queen (S)
President of Galaxy Inc. 
DBA Maui Isle Realty

Call: 808.669.5377 / web: www.maui-isle-realty.com / email: landnmaui@aol.com 

Copyright© 2003 Cliff McQueen

 



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